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The week before an election is the most stressful of the year for political junkies. The time for messaging and debate has largely passed, and the focus switches to voter turnout. Traffic to forecasting sites like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics shoots up as partisans try to get a sense of what might happen when the votes are tallied. Observers dig into last-minute polling and attempt to parse the turnout data from early voters to predict who will win key races. Polling in Texas—and, to some extent, nationally—is bouncing around much more than usual. The makeup of the electorate is harder to predict than ever: Does the absence of Donald Trump from the ballot make some percentage of his supporters less likely to turn out? Will the Supreme…

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